Social Media Trends 2013: 1.5 Billion People Using Facebook
That’s right! By the end of 2013 there will be 1.3 to 1.5 billion people using Facebook.
As I predicted a year ago, Facebook will reach 1.1 billion visitors by the end of 2012. I wrote about the countries that have populations big enough to matter but have not been taken over by Facebook yet. Now a year later the picture has changed. And you can see that Facebook has grown more than 90 percent in just one year in these countries.
As I predicted year ago, once the kingdom of Orkut Brazil is now dominated by Facebook. 29.3 million users in October 2011 has jumped more than 105 percent to 60,25 million. With this Brazil passed India as the second country with most Facebook users after USA. But there’s still some room to grow, mostly from new people starting to use computers. Facebook’s penetration in online population is 79.34%. Facebook will see 100 million users in Brazil.
A year ago in India Facebook had 37.37 million active users. With 46.15% of online population already using Facebook. We predicted that number of users will reach 45 million. Well, that was way too conservative. In October 2012 India reached 60.2 million active monthly users which makes it #3 in the ranking of all countries. Facebook penetration in online population is a staggering 74.33%. I predict that as more people in India start using computers, so will they start using Facebook. In some cases Facebook might BE the reason to star using computers. 100 million users in India by the end of next year does not seem like a stretch.
A year ago there was 4.6 million active Facebook users in Russia. Now it’s 7.1 million Facebook users or 55.3 percent more than last year. The slow adoption rate is caused by Vkontakte.ru and odnoklassniki.ru that are the major competing social networking sites in Russia. It is hard to tell how fast Facebook will grow. Seems that the network effect is not working very well for Facebook in a relatively self-contained market that has a different language and not many outside connections. However even in this case I think Facebook should push it to the top even there.
Last time I wrote that: “Japan has more than tripled its Facebook user base in 12 months”. Sam thing happened again. Japan has more than tripled its Facebook user base in 12 months from 5 million to 16.3 million users. That is an amazing 225.36 percent growth. As I predicted the the rate of growth is accelerating in absolute terms. Penetration in online population is still low with 16.41% using Facebook and this means that Facebook has a potential of 40 to 50 million users during the next year.
Not a big jump compared to other emerging countries in absolute numbers but South Korea posted 124.51 percent growth over the last 12 months. This brings the Facebook active monthly user count to 9,43 million from 4.2 million in the end of October 2011. I don’t know South Korea’s social networking market well enough to understand the competition. My guess is still that Facebook will just need some more time to make network effect work its magic for them. This means that by the end of next year there should be at least 20 million Facebook users in South Korea as the penetration in online population is still low 23.91%.
No trespassing! Still no pulse! China is continuing to block Facebook. Facebook has not been too successful to get that ban removed.
Now where is the new wave of growth coming to Facebook? The countries mentioned above and some others that have large population but low Facebook penetration rates (Nigeria for one) will push up Facebook’s user count by few hundred million.
This means that by the end of next year we may expect Facebook active monthly users somewhere between 1.3 and 1.5 billion. And that does not include China.
What do you think? When will Facebook stop growing and will it get access to China?